-|- The Chicken-Egg Problem |-|

I was just thinking about this. About the movies that we, Indian audience get to watch. ‘Bollywood Masala’, that’s what we call it right? Yes, it is true. A fun fact, more than 75% movies made here revolve around only one genre – romance, love stories. Once in a while a good movie releases and of course, when it is able to cast known stars or celebrities, then we realize.. ‘Dude, we’ve been watching shit all this long!’. Because yes, quality of our movies are drastically reducing down. And we even realize it few times.. few good creations alarm us to review our taste.. once again. But the thing is forget rate of Indians is too high. Next shitty film comes and we fill the theaters or watch pirated so called 3 hour entertainers on home theaters. If someone tries to make a better attempt, keeping it low on casts and costs, what do we do? We do nothing. Did you forget about our high forget rate? We’ve already forgot those clean emotions we got when we saw that last good movie. Or in some cases, a lot of convincing is needed to bring us to those films. Our mind subconsciously judges it with a quote – ‘If it didn’t make it to and on Box Office, it’s probably not worth of my time.’ Ohh, and did I tell ya, probability fucks sometimes!!

And that’s the reason nobody then tries to make a movie with good content-line spending huge production costs and casting hikes. Because, what if it fails? And this fear is not surreal. It’s valid. So, a typical situation runs like this – ‘If I make a good content wala movie, I will lose. If I try the opposite I will earn like hell (Coz yeah, India has 2nd largest population and highest number of youth which doesn’t mind spending some sum on films.)’ So, the probability of making better creations, which was already low, will tend to zero. And this endangers overall cinema ecosystem. Leading to overall quality reduction. And once people get frustrated beyond a threshold, such system collapses. That is nothing but the number of foreign cinema fans tending to N, the highest possible number, as praising good content becomes the new norm of society. And it’s not even future. It’s here, it’s now. Conscious people are witnessing this transformation with rise of Nolan’s movies, GOT, Suits, Sherlock, Narcos and even with some good Indian web series. Major portion of urban society had already turned to these other mediums of intellectually satisfying viewings. So, this is not a true Indian market which watches cinema. It is a lot more than that, which bollywood has already lost. We have already seen the downfall of Odia film industry. But what could Indian content producers even do? You ran through above typical situation right?

Not noticed the Chicken-Egg problem yet?

Let me help you with some other, more logical example. You are reading this article by wearing one of two career related roles – Employed or Unemployed. (Assuming you have already completed your studies and giving a pause to startups). We will also neglect The Times of India’s 80% unemployable human resource study for a moment. Even if we assume that eveeyone is capable, we still need more jobs. If you are from Computers and you are lucky, then there is a possibility that you are getting at least something to earn your bread and butter with. Forget if you are from mechanical, civil and other backgrounds. It’s tough to secure a good job. The reason?

A baseline goes something like this. Industries are getting more and more automated. A work which was initially consuming over 100 people can now be run with a single machine with less time and one time costs. Industrialists can save money, so they are employing more and more of these automations. And as A.I. research is now at a pace better than ever before, this automation is only going to get smarter, saving more resources. So unemployment will only increase. The CS people who are building these machines will also get replaced someday and a small chunk of key people will remain who would have saved much till that point concentrating much worth than masses and a mediocre set of people helping maintaining the resources. Unemployment will explode. No, I am not talking about need of communism here. I am just trying to explain somewhat different problem for which I am seeking an answer to. Big people’s mindset, or any human being’s mindset for that matter will run a situation like – ‘If I hire more people, company profit reduces. If I automate, I will earn big.’ So, the probability of job creations, which was already low, will tend to zero. And everyone knows, unequal social systems collapse, they collapse hard.. on face!

You must have encountered with these Chicken-Egg problems in more means of your life than explained above. As a responsible result of 200,000 years of human evolution, my brain was urging me to think about this problem for a while now. So when I was having a random chain of thoughts tonight, I was kinda coming to the conclusive answer. I wanted to write more about it despite Nitin being waiting for me for a midnight chaai. But as this post is already too long, I won’t stretch it more. Will post it in the next article.

We would love to hear your generalized answers as well on these Chicken-Egg problems! Ping or comment 🙂